Russia’s Wagner Group Is A Good Reason Why Machiavelli Warned About Mercenaries
The state-backed paramilitary cartel active on four continents
“Wagner is nothing like what Americans might understand as a private military company. Wagner are mercenaries for hire. They massacre and rape civilians, they exploit, loot natural resources, and they carry it off, much of this back to the Kremlin.”
— John E Smith, Former Director of US Treasury Sanctions Agency, Shadow Men: Inside Wagner, Russia’s Secret War Company
Niccolo Machiavelli is often considered a darker force in history due to his famous work called The Prince.
While it advised rulers to be ruthless, there was a reason. Machiavelli’s Italy was divided into city states, which were often individually picked off by large European neighbors. The Prince was a response.
It detailed ways for a ruler to unite the Italian Peninsula into a single nation. So, Machiavelli deeply understood the perils of invasion and what happened when foreign armies ravaged a land or if rebels captured a throne.
Yet, despite this innate fear, he warned his “Prince” about resorting to using mercenaries. Specifically, Machiavelli advised:
“A state based on mercenary forces will never be solid or secure. Mercenary forces are not united; they are ambitious, undisciplined, and disloyal. They are careful of friends, villainous with enemies, not fearing God, and faithless among men. Attack and defeat are the same to them. In peacetime, they rob you. In war, the enemy ruins you.”
He even blamed them for the “ruin of Italy.” Today his words are echoed by voices far from Italy, in places like the Middle East, Africa, and Ukraine. The agents of their ruin also have one name: The Wagner Group.
You may have heard the name mentioned in news reports, but its tentacles stretch further than you can imagine. It only gets clearer after examining Wagner’s history.
From Caterer To Little Green Men
The Wall Street Journal's documentary Shadow Men: Inside Wagner, Russia’s Secret War Company, explains the organization is run by Yevgeny Prigozhin. It’s also not one company per se. The entity is a nebulous grouping of sixty-four companies, which shift money around.
Oddly, Prigozhin started at a catering company called Concord, which won lots of lucrative contracts for the Russian military. He was even comically referred to as Putin’s chef. However, at some point the money for food got diverted to something new: a private military entity.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) claims the first iteration of this occurred during Russia’s original foray into Ukraine in 2014. As Crimea was annexed you might recall the phrase “little green men” being used regularly. It referred to masked unknown soldiers that appeared in the war zone.
Putin claimed they were native forces fighting to be part of Russia, however, others said they were Russian military. According to the documentary, they were part of Wagner in its first foray.
They allowed Putin the plausible deniability of having boots on the ground, because they technically weren’t his boots. The documentary also claims once rebel leaders were no longer necessary, many suddenly died under mysterious circumstances. The WSJ believes Wagner did this too.
And their success led to a second, more profitable change to business.
Syria And Natural Resources
In 2015, Syria erupted into civil war with interested powers getting involved. Pro-democracy, Kurdish, ISIS, pro-Assad regime, Russian, and American troops we’re all active within the country. Wagner tagged along too, although under a different name and tactics.
In the documentary, a former soldier claims a company called Evro Polis hired him and paid their mostly Russian operators $3,000 a month. They were one of the many shell organizations within Wagner. Their prime purpose was twofold: to keep Bashar al-Assad in power and protect natural resources.
While many may not realize it, Syria has oil and gas reserves, and much of it fell into rebel hands during the war. Wagner understood this could be an opportunity. So, Evro Polis signed a deal with the Syrian government to recover these plants for an interesting consideration.
For recovering a field, Evro Polis would get twenty-five percent of everything it produced. Not a fixed cash amount. The WSJ says by 2017, the company had captured four of the largest gas wells in the country, and suddenly became an energy / private military company.
Obviously, that’s a sweet deal, so it encouraged Evro Polis to grab as many wells as possible, but this led to trouble. In 2018, they tried to capture a Conoco gas plant in Kasham, held by American backed rebels and were spotted. U.S. officers called Russian contacts, who denied they were Russian, which was true.
Although Wagner troops used Russian planes, bases, and transports, they weren’t the Russian military. Eventually, the U.S. forces called in an air strike. It’s debated how many Russians died, but they were expendable anyway, because they technically weren’t Russian forces. But, as a whole, Syria was a successful venture, and it changed the way Wagner operated.
Chaos Creates Customers
“I need to protect the population. I need to protect the institutions of the republic. I asked everyone for help, and was I supposed to refuse the help from those who wanted to help us?”
— President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, Central African Republic, via NBC News
If unstable nations make good customers, Africa is a great home base. Many Princes feel threatened, which makes Wagner valuable. It also gave them the opportunity to take the operational presence of an the British or Dutch East India companies, mixing soldiers and resources.
For instance, when rebels threatened to take over the Central African Republic, and the French and UN balked, President Touadéra turned to Sewa Security Services (aka Wagner). They supplied soldiers, trainers, weapons, and vehicles in exchange for concessions. But they sent more than military.
An advisor to the President, Bertin Maboula, in an interview in the WSJ documentary says the Russians also brought miners and engineers. After capturing the one hundred thirty-eight square mile Ndassima Mine, the soldiers never left.
The government tore up the contract with the existing company working the mine and awarded it to a Russian company called Midas Resources, with links to Wagner. They built up Ndassima, making it the only industrialized mine in the country, which is also off-limits to its own government. The WSJ claims it produces billions of dollars in gold.
As in Syria, Wagner’s soldiers also took part in slaughters: in this case the Boyo Massacre. After all, fear can be a great tool to keep the locals in line. But it wasn’t a one off.
Wagner and their shell companies jumped from one African country to another, making money initially with weapons and soldiers. Then, reaping huge profits with natural resources such as gold, diamonds, timber, and whatever other valuable thing they could pull out of the earth.
They’ve even operated in the Americas. However, the money went home to Russia, and it likely helped fund the current war in Ukraine. And while it seems like a dark success story for Vladimir Putin, don’t dismiss Machiavelli’s warning just yet.
The Problem With Mercenaries
“A wise Prince therefore avoids dependence on these forces and relies on his own. Better to lose with his forces, than win with arms of others…”
— Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince
The BBC estimates Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner control about fifty thousand soldiers in Ukraine alone, not to mention forces in other countries. Then, you can’t forget about their wealth from natural resources. All that creates a very powerful force.
Now, as Machiavelli might remind you, mercenaries ultimately serve themselves, not their employer. So, what happens when Russia and Wagner’s goals diverge? We’re finding out first-hand.
Prigozhin had been openly criticizing the Russian military, then it a step further. The Wagner chief accused the Russian Defense Minister of ordering a rocket attack on a camp occupied by his mercenaries. Prigozhin, then demanded his removal.
Although the demand sounded like he was encouraging an armed rebellion. Furthermore, his actions seem to confirm it. According to the BBC, Russian security services opened a criminal investigation into Prigozhin too. While it’s interesting, this isn’t unexpected.
Although Wagner looks like a savior to its employers, it eventually ends up shackling them like in Crimea, Syria, Africa, and wherever else it goes.
As Machiavelli notes, the only thing worse than an incompetent mercenary commander is an excellent one “because they aspire to glory themselves,” and are totally untrustworthy.
-Originally published on Medium 6/24/23